Espanha - o freguês que se segue!

MADRID -- Moody's Investors Service Inc. said Wednesday it may downgrade its ratings on Spanish government debt, citing the country's challenging refinancing needs next year and a complicated outlook for the country's banks and regional governments.
The credit rating agency put the Aa1 local and foreign-currency ratings on the debt of the Spanish government and the government-guaranteed bank-bailout fund on review for possible downgrade, highlighting concerns over the spread of the European sovereign debt crisis from peripheral countries such as Greece to bigger markets closer to the euro-zone core.
Moody's said a downgrade could be triggered by "Spain's vulnerability to funding stress given its high refinancing needs in 2011," a problem that has recently been amplified by fragile market confidence.
"Obviously, market confidence has changed since September," when Moody's downgraded Spain's credit rating by one notch to Aa1, citing the country's weak growth prospects and challenges for fiscal consolidation, Kathrin Muehlbronner, Moody's lead analyst for Spain, said in an interview.
Moody's said in a statement that the Spanish government will need to raise approximately EUR170 billion next year. In addition, regional governments have refinancing needs of around EUR30 billion in 2011. "Moreover, the Spanish banks, whose own funding capacity partly depends on the fortunes of the Spanish sovereign, have around EUR90 billion worth of term debt to refinance in 2011," Moody's added.
Spanish financing costs have hit euro-era highs recently as jittery investors fretted over the ability of the government and banks to meet an avalanche of debt repayments early next year. Spain's risk premium--as measured by the spread of the Spanish 10-year bond's yield over that of its German equivalent, the bund--have jumped since the collapse of Ireland's banking system.
Moody's was the last major credit rating firm to rate Spain the "Aaa" maximum until September. It may downgrade Spain again within the next three months.
However, Moody's said it doesn't "believe that Spain's solvency is under threat," and that it doesn't expect the Spanish government to have to ask for liquidity support from the European Financial Stability Facility. The ratings agency noted that Spain's substantial funding requirements, "not only for the sovereign but also for the regional governments and the banks, make the country susceptible to further episodes of funding stress. This is one of the drivers behind the review for possible downgrade," Muehlbronner said in Moody's statement.
Spain is suffering from the collapse of a decade-long housing-market boom that pushed its economy into recession and sent its public-sector accounts deep into the red. Its weak budgetary position left it vulnerable to the spread of Europe's financial crisis.
Responding to intense pressure from markets and the EU, Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has stepped up efforts to cut its double-digit budget deficit and spur economic growth. At great political cost, the Socialist prime minister forced through an austerity budget that included tax hikes and deep spending cuts this year and next. Earlier this month, Zapatero announced a series of economic measures to raise some EUR14 billion through the partial privatization of the national lottery and airport operator AENA, as well as the management of Madrid's and Barcelona's airports by private companies.
-By William Mallard, Kosaku Narioka and Santiago Perez, Dow Jones Newswires